Data: Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (mcc-berlin.net)
Are we thinking about the emission of greenhouse gasses such as methane and carbon when we do day to day activities like: driving a car, using energy to cook or heating our houses? Probably not. But by doing this we are making our small but constant contribution to the problem of Global Warming. We see from worsening weather disasters around the world that this returns as a boomerang back to our houses and families.
of all natural disasters were related to climate change
USA share of global world cumulative CO₂ emission
people can be pushed into poverty by 2030 because of climate change impact
Statistics Source: https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/united-states?country=~USA
Statistics Source: Executive Summary - Climate Science Special Report
The overall trend in global average temperature indicates that warming is occurring in an increasing number of regions. Future Earth warming depends on our greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.
At present, approximately 11 billion metric tons of carbon are released into the atmosphere each year. As a result, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the rise every year, as it surpasses the natural capacity for removal.
warmest years on historical record have occurred since 2010
is the total increase in the Earth's temperature since 1880
warming rate since 1981
Observations from both satellites and the Earth’s surface are indisputable — the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 44 years. As far back as 1850, data from weather stations all over the globe make clear the Earth’s average temperature has been rising.
In recent days, as the Earth has reached its highest average temperatures in recorded history, warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. Paleoclimatologists, who study the Earth’s climate history, are confident that the current decade is warmer than any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago.
Clean hydrogen has 3 main uses: energy storage, load balancing, and as feedstock/fuel. Used in all sectors, including steel, chemical, oil refining & heavy transport. Actions to accelerate decarbonization & increase clean hydrogen use include:
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality requires widespread renewable energy and a huge increase in vehicles, products, and processes powered by electricity.
Electricity generated from increasingly renewable energy sources is the right way to create a clean energy system. Switching from direct use of fossil fuels to electricity improves air quality by reducing emissions of local pollutants.In order to increase the use of electricity, we can do the following:
As the foremost element in the periodic table, hydrogen holds a unique position in the universe, given its status as the lightest and one of the most ancient and abundant chemical elements.
Hydrogen, in its pure form, needs to be extracted since it is usually present in more intricate molecules, such as water or hydrocarbons, on Earth.
Hydrogen powers stars through nuclear fusion. This creates energy and all the other chemicals elements which are found on Earth.

Hydrogen is an essential part for manufacturing Ammoniam Nitrate fertilizers. Half of the world's food is grown using hydrogen-based ammonia fertilizer.
Hydrogen is used in the production of methanol, where hydrogen is reacted with carbon monoxide to produce chemical feedstocks.
Hydrogen fuel cells make electricity from combining hydrogen and oxygen. Power plants are showing increased interest in using hydrogen, and gas turbines can convert from natural gas to hydrogen combustion.

Hydrogen is an alternative vehicle fuel. It allows us to power fuel cells in zero-emission electric drive vehicles.
Hydrogen heat is used in order to reduce emissions in the manufacturing process.
Steelmaking is an industry that is beginning to successfully use hydrogen in two ways to eliminate almost all greenhouse emissions from the steelmaking process. First for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) replacing coke (from coal) with hydrogen to remove oxygen from iron ore. Second for heat to melt the iron ore into DRI and then into low carbon steel.
Liquid hydrogen has been used by NASA as a rocket fuel since the 1950s.
Hydrogen is used in production of explosives, fertilizers, and other chemicals; to convert heavier hydrocarbons to lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals; to hydrogenate organic compounds; and to remove impurities like sulfur, halides, oxygen, metals, and/or nitrogen. It's also in household cleaners like ammonium hydroxide.

Hydrogen is used to make vitamins and other pharmaceutical products.
In the production of float glass, hydrogen is needed to provide heat and to prevent the large tin bath from oxidizing.
It is used to hydrogenate unsaturated fatty acids in animal and vegetable oils, to obtain solid fats for margarine and other food products.
Using clean hydrogen makes it possible to reduce emissions while "cracking" heavier petroleum into lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals.
By 2030
Statistics Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2022
SMR is a way of producing syngas (Hydrogen and Carbon monoxide) by mixing hydrocarbons (like natural gas) with water. This mixture goes into a special container called a reformer vessel where a high-pressure mixture of steam and methane comes into contact with a nickel catalyst. As a result of the reaction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are produced.
To make more hydrogen, carbon monoxide from the first reaction is mixed with water through the WGS reaction. As a result, we receive more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide. For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced and in almost all cases released into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide is a harmful gas causing climate change.
$863 ($0.86 per kilogram of Hydrogen)
(Electricity = $474 + Methane $383 + Water $6 US EIA May 2024*)
The SMR method involves combining natural gas with high-temperature steam and a catalyst to generate a blend of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Then, more water is added to the mixture to make more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide.
For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced. In a few experimental trials, to help the environment, the carbon dioxide is captured and stored underground using a special technology called CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage). This leaves almost pure hydrogen.
One of the main problems with carbon capture and storage is that without careful management of storage, the CO2 can flow from these underground reservoirs into the surrounding air and contribute to climate change, or spoil the nearby water supply. Another is the risk of creating earthquake tremors caused by the storage increasing underground pressure, known as human caused seismicity.
$1,253 ($1.25 per kilogram of Hydrogen)
(Electricity $474 + Methane $505 + Water $4 US + CCS $270 EIA May 2024*)
This technology based on natural gas emits no greenhouse gases as it does not produce CO2. Methane Pyrolysis refers to a method of generating hydrogen by breaking down methane into its basic components, namely hydrogen and solid carbon.
Oxygen is not involved at all within this process (no CO or CO2 is produced). Thus, for the production of hydrogen gas there is no need for an additional of CO or for CO2 separation.
$1,199 ($1.20 per kilogram of Hydrogen)
(Electricity $433 +Methane $766 EIA May 2024*)
The concept of Green Hydrogen involves generating hydrogen from renewable energy sources by means of electrolysis, a process that splits water into its fundamental constituents, hydrogen and oxygen, using an electric current. This process can be powered by a range of renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind power, and hydropower.
The electricity used in the electrolysis process is derived exclusively from renewable sources, ensuring a sustainable and environmentally-friendly production of hydrogen. It generates zero carbon dioxide emissions and, as a result, prevents global warming.
$3,289 ($3.29 per kilogram of Hydrogen)
(Electricity $3,278 + water $11 US EIA May 2024*)
Known as "White" hydrogen, it can be generated through various geological processes. The study of geologic hydrogen and its potential as an energy resource is an active area of research, as it holds promise for renewable energy applications, particularly in the context of hydrogen fuel cells and clean energy production.
It's important to note that the creation of geologic hydrogen is generally a slow and long-term process, occurring over geological timescales. This is because the other methods are human production technology methods and this is creation by a natural phenomena. The availability and abundance of geologic hydrogen can vary significantly depending on the specific geological setting and the interplay of various factors such as rock composition, temperature, pressure, and the presence of suitable reactants.
Serpentinization is a chemical reaction that occurs when water interacts with certain types of rocks, particularly ultramafic rocks rich in minerals such as olivine and pyroxene. This process results in the formation of serpentine minerals and produces hydrogen gas as a byproduct. Serpentinization typically takes place in environments such as hydrothermal systems, oceanic crust, and certain tectonic settings.
In regions with high concentrations of radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, the decay of these elements releases radiation. This radiation can interact with surrounding water or other fluids, splitting the water molecules and generating hydrogen gas through a process called radiolysis. This mechanism is believed to contribute to the production of hydrogen in certain deep geological settings, such as deep groundwater systems and radioactive mineral deposits.
Geothermal systems, which involve the circulation of hot water or steam through fractured rocks, can generate hydrogen gas as a result of various processes. High-temperature hydrothermal systems can cause the thermal decomposition of hydrocarbons, releasing hydrogen gas. Additionally, the interaction between water and hot rocks in geothermal reservoirs can lead to the production of hydrogen through serpentinization or other geochemical reactions.
Abiotic methane refers to methane gas that is not directly derived from biological sources, such as microbial activity. In certain geological environments, abiotic methane can be generated through processes like thermal decomposition of organic matter or reactions between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. This methane can subsequently undergo thermal or catalytic cracking, producing hydrogen gas.
Keep current hydrogen production methods BUT
make additional steps to broaden them with cleaner production methods
And as a result the world will get more vital hydrogen and become one step closer to net zero emission
The market is dominated by grey hydrogen produced from natural gas through a fossil fuel-powered SMR process. Every year, the production of grey hydrogen amounts to approximately 70 to 80 million tons, and it is primarily used in industrial chemistry. More than 80% is used for the synthesis of ammonia and its derivatives (fertilizer for agriculture, 50 perecent of food worldwide) or for oil refining operations. Unfortunately, for every 1 kg of grey hydrogen, almost 6-8 kg of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere.
More than 95% of the world's hydrogen production is based on fossil fuels with greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, to achieve a more stable future and promote the transition of pure energy, the global goal is to reduce the use of other “colors” of hydrogen and focus on the production of a clean product, such as green or turquoise hydrogen. Reaching the zero carbon footprint will require a gradual transition from grey to green/turquoise hydrogen in the coming years.
It is possible to produce decarbonized hydrogen. An option is to use another feedstock, namely water, and convert it in large electrolyzers into H2 and oxygen (O2), which are returned to the atmosphere. If the electricity used to power the electrolyzers is 100% renewable energy (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, etc.), then hydrogen becomes green. Currently, it is about 0.1% of the total production of hydrogen, but it is expected that it will increase since the cost of renewable energy continues to fall.
U.S. additions to electric generation capacity from 2000 to 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the United States
is building power plants at a record pace. As indicated on the chart, nearly all new electric generating capacity either already installed or planned
for 2025 is from clean energy sources, while new power plants coming
on line 25 years ago, in 2000, were predominantly fueled by natural gas. New wind power plants began to come on line in 2001 and new solar plants, 10 years, later in 2011. Since 2023, the U.S. power industry has built more solar than any other type of power plant. The EIA predicts that clean energy (wind, solar, and battery storage) will deliver 93% of new power-plant capacity in 2025.
Global surface air temperature departures between 1940 and 2024 from the average temperature for the period 1991-2020 (averages below the 11-year average are blue and those above are red). The average in October 2024 was +0.80 degrees Celsius above the reference period average, down from +0.85 degrees Celsius above the reference period average in 2023, which was the warmest October on record.
The startup’s first-of-a-kind geothermal project hit key milestones in Germany — but also technical hurdles. Now it’s looking for partners to help finish the job.
The startup Eavor Technologies hit a crucial milestone late last year when its flagship geothermal project — a novel closed-loop system — started sending electricity to Germany’s grid. The company had completed the first of four planned loops, and it expected to start construction on its second loop earlier this spring.

Now, Eavor says it’s revising that timeline. The Canadian startup encountered major engineering challenges when drilling its initial wells deep underground near Geretsried, Germany. While Eavor was able to fix those issues, it’s seeking new project partners and investors to help it complete the next-generation geothermal system.
“We’re looking to make Loop 2 happen as soon as practical and in the best form that we can,” Matt Toews, Eavor’s co-founder and chief technology and operating officer, told Canary Media. “Exactly how that shakes out, I can’t say yet until it’s done.”
Still, “The overall grand plan stays the same,” he added. “It’s really about proving the technology, … coming down the learning curve, and going deeper and hotter” to unleash geothermal energy.
Eavor began drilling in Geretsried, which is south of Munich, in July 2023 after winning a grant for 91.6 million euros from the European Union’s Innovation Fund. At full scale, the project is intended to supply 8.2 megawatts of electricity to the grid or 64 MW of district heating to nearby towns.
Demand for the renewable resource is rising globally as countries look to boost supplies of clean, domestic energy, both to meet their soaring electricity needs and to reduce reliance on volatile fossil fuels. Traditionally, geothermal power plants have been confined to places with natural reservoirs of steam and hot water, like near Iceland’s volcanos or California’s thermal springs.
Eavor is one of dozens of companies trying to break those constraints by developing technologies that can access earth’s heat potentially anywhere — though the industry is just starting to deploy those solutions in the real world.
It’s not uncommon to see delays or evolving plans when rolling out new energy technologies.
Emily Pope, a geologist and senior fellow at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, said she wasn’t remotely surprised to hear that a first-of-a-kind project like Eavor’s encountered technical hurdles. Pope previously worked on the Iceland Deep Drilling Project, an ongoing research initiative to tap into superhot reservoirs, which hit significant snags after its first well unwittingly struck magma and then the second one collapsed.
“The setbacks [for Eavor] were real, but also understandable and predictable, and something that we see in every industry that is trying to grow,” she said, adding that geothermal developers in general “are going to have to learn by doing.”
Eavor’s approach is akin to building a massive radiator several miles beneath the earth’s surface. Each loop involves drilling two vertical wells and pairs of horizontal, or lateral, wells that stretch out like the tines of a fork. The wells are later connected underground and sealed off. As water circulates within the system, it collects heat from the rocks and brings it to the surface.
The basic concept is tried and true; this is essentially how shallow geothermal networks heat and cool homes and buildings. But Eavor’s system requires drilling far deeper, and in much trickier conditions, in order to provide utility-scale electricity and heating.

In the United States, another next-generation technology — an enhanced geothermal system, or EGS — has been gaining the most traction among developers. The startup Fervo Energy is building what will become the world’s largest EGS project in Utah, using fracking and horizontal drilling techniques to create artificial reservoirs. The first phase of this 500-megawatt project is set to start producing power this fall.
As a technology, enhanced systems are considered more advanced and relatively less costly than closed-loop systems for power generation. The loops are generally less efficient at extracting heat from the earth, since their fluids don’t directly touch rocks, and they can be lengthier and more complex to drill. But EGS has its own trade-offs: The approach carries the risk of inducing earthquakes and straining local water supplies, though experts say both issues can be mitigated.
“Closed-loop just leapfrogs over those challenges” because of its contained design, Pope said, adding that the systems could be a better fit for harnessing heat in dense urban areas and in water-scarce regions. In the U.S., the companies XGS Energy, GreenFire Energy, and Vero Geothermal are also pursuing closed-loop projects in places like California and New Mexico.
“There’s a demand for it, and there’s just a lot of good reasons to try to do it,” Pope said.
Last fall, Eavor released results from two years of activity in Geretsried, which showed how the company reduced drilling times and improved performance despite encountering challenges. In late May, Toews penned a technical update describing in greater detail the key problems Eavor faced in drilling its first loop.
After its first boreholes became unstable, leading to the risk of stuck pipes, Eavor changed the type of drilling-fluid system it used. Broken equipment and slow drilling speeds initially plagued the project, owing in part to the hard rock types and the length of the lateral wells. By tweaking its techniques and adapting equipment, Eavor said it cut its average drilling time by over 70% from the first four lateral well pairs to the last.
The company also developed an “active magnetic ranging” system to give it more precision when drilling long wellbores and getting its lateral well pairs to intersect underground. “If you look at the wells, the first ones are kind of like wet noodles, and the last ones are gun-barrel straight,” Toews said in an interview.
But one challenge proved harder to address.
Eavor began by using two drilling rigs in parallel to form the “motherbores” from which the lateral wells extend out. The company found that poor cement casing on the motherbores allowed fluid and mud to flow freely between the two rigs, which are supposed to be completely sealed off. So the team switched to using one rig at a time — a temporary fix that doubled the time and cost for Eavor’s first loop.
The startup initially planned to drill 12 pairs of lateral wells for that first loop. But it stopped short at six so that it could try again with proper cementing design on the second loop. This could mean bringing on project partners with more experience drilling multilateral wells. Pope noted that well leakage is a common engineering problem in the oil and gas industry — one that drilling teams can generally account for and address.
Today, the system is producing as much power as Eavor expected for a loop of that size: about half a megawatt. For Eavor, that’s proof the technology works as promised, though the firm hasn’t said when it expects to reach full capacity for electricity and district heating.
“Despite all the challenges we had, and by us solving them, it has served its purpose,” Toews said of the flagship project. “We’ve proven that we can extract heat with our system, we know what it costs, … and we know exactly how to build and operate these loops at commercial scale.”
Pope said she hoped that Eavor and other companies will continue to be transparent about their experiences, to help other developers avoid similar pitfalls and to manage public expectations.
“I think it’s really important for the industry broadly to understand where companies are in their technological development, so we can have honest conversations about how close we are to achieving a commercial-scale product,” she said.
Sky-high fossil fuel prices drove people around the world toward clean energy. But even as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, they may not turn back.
America’s war with Iran is maybe, possibly, headed for resolution, but its impact on the global energy sector isn’t fading anytime soon.
The U.S. and Iran signed a deal on Wednesday to end their three-month conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil and gas shipping lane. It’s still unclear what the agreement exactly entails, or whether it’ll even hold up, but fossil fuel markets are taking it as a good omen. Global oil prices have already fallen to their lowest level in months, and gasoline prices across the U.S. are starting to sink. Still, experts say it could take up to a year for oil and gas prices to stabilize, especially given that Middle Eastern fossil fuel infrastructure was damaged during the war.
Amid these past few months of uncertainty, much of the world turned to a common solution: clean energy. People swapped gas cars for EVs, turned to electric appliances for cooking, and took other big — and potentially permanent — steps away from costly and volatile fossil fuels.
When 2026 started, the EV market wasn’t in a great place. The end of federal tax credits had tanked the U.S. market, and global sales were sluggish, too. But with skyrocketing fossil fuel prices came a renewed interest: New EV sales rose through April and May around the world, and BloombergNEF anticipates sales will climb even further throughout 2026.
Outside of higher prices at the gas pump, the U.S. hasn’t felt much of an impact from the energy shock. But in Europe and Asia, people are grappling with higher fuel costs for cooking, heating, and power generation, and have turned to clean solutions in response.
Instead of following President Donald Trump’s call to buy more U.S. fossil fuels, European Union leaders called for a bloc-wide shift to renewables. In Britain, Germany, and the Netherlands, tons of households installed rooftop solar arrays to avoid high electricity prices. In India, a cooking gas shortage led residents toward induction stoves. The Philippines similarly saw a surge in rooftop solar installs, and a new International Energy Agency report suggests the country and its neighbors across Southeast Asia will keep the clean investments coming given the region’s reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas imports.
Time will tell if the war and its fallout prove to be an inflection point for the clean energy transition, but analysts with think tank Ember argue it’s certainly a possibility. After all, the oil crises of the 1970s pushed the world to look beyond the Middle East for fossil fuel supplies, and to pursue more efficient uses of oil and gas. The same thing could happen this time around — only with cleaner, cheaper, and more secure energy as the alternative.
Hot spring: Clean energy had a record-breaking spring in the U.S., with solar generation beating out coal for the first time in May, among other wins for solar, wind, and battery storage throughout the season. (Canary Media)
Clean energy’s next hurdle: Most wind and solar projects under construction in the U.S. have secured “safe harbor” status, meeting the July 4 deadline to tap federal incentives, but now developers must race to complete those projects in four years. (Canary Media)
Courts deliver on climate: Clean energy groups and states continue to fight the federal government’s multipronged blockade on wind and solar development, scoring victories as the Trump administration abandons one anti-wind fight and is ordered to release millions of dollars in climate grants revoked from states that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. (E&E News, Utility Dive, New York Times)
Transmission disconnect: The New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line was supposed to bring tons of clean hydropower from Canada into the Northeast U.S., but energy imports have increased only a tiny bit since the line began running in January. (Canary Media)
Solar funding unplugged: The DOE has redirected tens of millions of dollars that the Biden administration allocated to Puerto Rico for a resilient network of solar panels and batteries toward building a gas pipeline and other fossil fuel infrastructure. (Grist)
Double-edged grid upgrades: Making much-needed upgrades to the U.S. grid could result in a $1 billion payout to American utility executives, as publicly traded utilities’ stock valuations are directly tied to their spending. (Reuters)
The flow has been stop and go for the first few months, but the line shows plenty of potential to boost Massachusetts’ renewable energy supply.
When the New England Clean Energy Connect transmission line started carrying electricity from Canada into Maine in January, supporters hailed the project as a triumph for renewable power. Now, after nearly six months of operations, the early numbers raise questions about whether the project will be able to advance the region’s energy transition as much as advertised.

Energy flow into New England is up just marginally, and there have been roughly 27 days when no power at all traveled along the new line, commonly called NECEC. If current trends hold, New England will receive less hydropower this year over two transmission lines than it did over just one line in 2023 and previous years.
“What we’ve seen so far is not what some people expected to see,” said Joseph LaRusso, manager of the Clean Grid Program at climate nonprofit Acadia Center.
Potentially putting further strain on the supply of Canadian hydropower is the Champlain Hudson Power Express, a transmission line that started sending electricity from Quebec into New York City this month.
NECEC has its origins in a 2016 Massachusetts law that required the state to procure 1.6 gigawatts of offshore wind power and another 1.2 gigawatts of additional renewable energy. The plan was to contract with state-owned Canadian power supplier Hydro-Québec to tap into the region’s abundant hydropower resources and build a new transmission line to carry the electricity south.
The first proposal — a 192-mile project through New Hampshire — was abandoned in 2019 after public outcry about the impact on the state’s forests. The transmission line through Maine faced similar controversy. In 2021, a statewide referendum vote put the project on hold until 2023, when a jury ruled that the development could be restarted.
Two and a half years later, NECEC came online and started carrying the first electrons into New England. It’s certainly a notable achievement in a time when the Trump administration has been doing all it can to stop progress on clean energy, including offshore wind — the cornerstone of the Northeast’s decarbonization plans. And although the results so far have been mixed, some see potential for the line to make a sizable impact on New England’s clean energy future.
When NECEC came online earlier this year, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey, a Democrat, and climate advocates touted it as a major win for the state’s renewable energy goals and a way to save residents money on their utility bills. Massachusetts contracted with Hydro-Québec for 9.55 terawatt-hours of hydropower per year, roughly 20% of the state’s annual electricity demand.
The operations have not had the smoothest start. NECEC was completely inactive for several spans — from a half day on April 28 to nearly two weeks at the end of May and beginning of June. The most recent outage was due to “technical difficulties,” Hydro-Québec spokesperson Lynn St-Laurent said in a written statement.
“Once repairs were completed, deliveries resumed,” she said. “With any new transmission infrastructure, a period of optimization and fine-tuning is to be expected.”
Still, most of the time, hydropower has flowed steadily on the new infrastructure. Through the end of April, Hydro-Québec exported about 2.4 terawatt-hours of power on the transmission line.
If the power is (mostly) moving as planned, why are some people still skeptical that the project will deliver the promised benefits? Because so far, it hasn’t done much to add to the total supply of renewable energy in New England.
Before NECEC, New England already imported significant amounts of hydropower on a transmission line known as Phase 2, which runs from Quebec into central Massachusetts. In 2019, the year the Massachusetts regulators approved the contracts between utilities and Hydro-Québec, more than 12 terawatt-hours traveled onto the New England grid over the line.
But starting in 2023, Hydro-Québec started selling less and less energy to New England over Phase 2. For nearly three weeks in early 2025, exports ceased entirely. Through the end of April this year, just over half a terawatt-hour has come south over that line. On paper, it can look a lot like NECEC isn’t allowing more energy into New England but is instead just giving it a new road to travel along.
“We’re not seeing much net new flows coming from our neighbors,” said Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power Generators Association. “We are running pretty close to the net energy flows we had in 2025, which were the lowest amount of imports that New England has ever gotten from Quebec.”
At the same time, Quebec has started importing power over the Phase 2 line, a rare occurrence before 2025. In the first four months of this year, more than 500 gigawatt-hours traveled into Canada on the line. Because New England’s electricity supply relies heavily on natural gas generation, the region is still burning fossil fuels to ship energy north even though it is receiving hydropower for its own use.
“We’re seeing a heavier natural gas burn on the rest of the generation fleet than I think many of those states had assumed going into this year,” Dolan said.
The main driver behind slowing exports seems to be the drought conditions that have lingered in Quebec for the past few years. During wetter periods, the hydropower industry uses large reservoirs to store water to help it ride out these drier times, said Gilbert Bennett, a senior adviser for WaterPower Canada, a hydropower trade group.
As generators wait for rainier days, their first obligation is to supply domestic customers, he said. That means there will likely be times when Hydro-Québec needs to import electricity over the Phase 2 line to offset some of the hydropower it is contractually obliged to send to Massachusetts over NECEC.
“Electricity flows between Québec and New England are dynamic and vary continuously based on market conditions and system needs on both sides of the border,” St-Laurent said.
Financially, New England customers should not be at risk from these ongoing shifts, LaRusso said. Massachusetts’ contract with Hydro-Québec includes provisions that require the Canadian company to pay financial penalties if it fails to deliver according to its contract.
“To the extent that imports are curtailed, Hydro-Québec is liable to make the electric utilities whole for the cost of replacement power,” LaRusso said.
It is less clear whether NECEC will boost Massachusetts’ renewable energy supply in the long run.
Still, the new transmission line has at times demonstrated its potential to help New England achieve a cleaner energy supply, LaRusso said. He pointed to May 16, a sunny day when solar power reduced demand on the grid and NECEC was going full tilt. Natural gas plants were running at low levels, and most of the power was heading to New York. For a short time, all the region’s power needs could be met by nonfossil fuel resources.
“Hypothetically, [grid operator] ISO New England could’ve turned off its gas generators,” LaRusso said. “It really gets you thinking of the resources available and how they could be managed and shared in the future.”
Bennett is also confident in the long-term outlook. In general, he said, climate change is forecast to create wetter conditions in Quebec. And the region is investing heavily in additional hydropower facilities as well as onshore wind. The years to come, he said, will bring plenty of renewable resources to share with Canada’s southern neighbors.
“Over the long term, we see a bright future,” Bennett said.