The Problem

Global Warming

Remaining carbon Budget as of 22 Aug 2024

spiner
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Data:  Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (mcc-berlin.net)

Remaining Carbon Budget

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), evaluates scientific data related to climate change, including estimates of the remaining CO2 emissions budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C / 2°C. This data, last updated in the summer of 2021, underlies the MCC Carbon Clock.

IPCC bases the carbon budget on the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions and temperature rise, considering the lag between CO2 concentration and its temperature impact. With annual emissions from fossil fuels, industrial processes, and land-use change estimated at 42.2 gigatonnes (1,337 tonnes per second), the 1.5°C / 2°C budgets are expected to be exhausted in approximately 3 and 21 years from January 2026, respectively.

Realtime countdown of the remaining carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions budget until global warming reaches a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), evaluates scientific data related to climate change including estimates of the remaining amount of CO2 that can be released into the atmosphere to limit global warming to a maximum of 1.5°C / 2°C.  This data was last updated in summer 2021, and is the basis of the MCC Carbon Clock.

IPCC bases the concept of a carbon budget on a nearly linear relationship between the cumulative emissions and the temperature rise.  There is, however, a lag between the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and their impact on temperature to be taken into account.  With the starting point of annual emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels, industrial processes and land-use change estimated to be 42.2 gigatonnes per year [or 1,337 tonnes per second], the 1.5°C / 2°C budgets would be expected to be exhausted in approximately 5 and 23 years from August 2024, respectively.

Am I also contributing?

Are we thinking about the emission of greenhouse gasses such as methane and carbon when we do day to day activities like: driving a car, using energy to cook or heating our houses? Probably not. But by doing this we are making our small but constant contribution to the problem of Global Warming. We see from worsening weather disasters around the world that this returns as a boomerang back to our houses and families.

>80%

of all natural disasters were related to climate change

24.29%

USA share of global world cumulative CO₂ emission

100 million

people can be pushed into poverty by 2030 because of climate change impact

We agree this is really happening!

The overall trend in global average temperature indicates that warming is occurring in an increasing number of regions. Future Earth warming depends on our greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.

At present, approximately 11 billion metric tons of carbon are released into the atmosphere each year. As a result, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is on the rise every year, as it surpasses the natural capacity for removal.

10

warmest years on historical record have occurred since 2010

>2°F

is the total increase in the Earth's temperature since 1880

>2x

warming rate since 1981

Understanding the ultimate consequences of current trends

Observations from both satellites and the Earth’s surface are indisputable — the planet has warmed rapidly over the past 44 years. As far back as 1850, data from weather stations all over the globe make clear the Earth’s average temperature has been rising.

In recent days, as the Earth has reached its highest average temperatures in recorded history, warmer than any time in the last 125,000 years. Paleoclimatologists, who study the Earth’s climate history, are confident that the current decade is warmer than any period since before the last ice age, about 125,000 years ago.

The Solution Has Several Parts

What can be done to stop it?

Increase the usage of Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen has 3 main uses: energy storage, load balancing, and as feedstock/fuel. Used in all sectors, including steel, chemical, oil refining & heavy transport. Actions to accelerate decarbonization & increase clean hydrogen use include:

  • Invest in clean hydrogen supply;
  • Increase hydrogen demand as fuel/feedstock;
  • Use hydrogen for clean high-temperature heat;
  • Use hydrogen as low-carbon feedstock for ammonia/fertilizer;
  • Use hydrogen as clean fuel for heavy transport;
  • Create policies incentivizing electric power decarbonization;
  • Utilize hydrogen as a means for storing energy over extended periods;
  • Improve electrolyser technology & readiness in heavy industry/liquid transport fuels;
  • Increase use of Methane Pyrolysis & Water Electrolysis for clean hydrogen production;
  • Increase use of wind and solar in electricity production systems.

Increase the usage of Electricity

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving carbon neutrality requires widespread renewable energy and a huge increase in vehicles, products, and processes powered by electricity.

Electricity generated from increasingly renewable energy sources is the right way to create a clean energy system. Switching from direct use of fossil fuels to electricity improves air quality by reducing emissions of local pollutants.In order to increase the use of electricity, we can do the following:

  • Use more electric cars. Compared to traditional combustion engine vehicles, electric cars show a 3-5 times increase in energy efficiency;
  • Increase your electricity consumption within your household;
  • Upgrade your home with smart technology. Electrical appliances can be digitized with smart technology;
  • Use electric heat pump heating. Heat pumps use 4 times less energy than oil or gas boilers;
  • Electrify industrial processes in order to reduce energy intensity.

No Carbon Fuel News from Canary Media

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What is hydrogen?

icon

Lightest and most abundant

As the foremost element in the periodic table, hydrogen holds a unique position in the universe, given its status as the lightest and one of the most ancient and abundant chemical elements.

icon

Never alone

Hydrogen, in its pure form, needs to be extracted since it is usually present in more intricate molecules, such as water or hydrocarbons, on Earth.

icon

Fuel of stars

Hydrogen powers stars through nuclear fusion. This creates energy and all the other chemicals elements which are found on Earth.

Biggest Human Usages

Ammonia Production

Hydrogen is an essential part for manufacturing Ammoniam Nitrate fertilizers. Half of the world's food is grown using hydrogen-based ammonia fertilizer.

Methanol Production

Hydrogen is used in the production of methanol, where hydrogen is reacted with carbon monoxide to produce chemical feedstocks.

Electricity generation

Hydrogen fuel cells make electricity from combining hydrogen and oxygen. Power plants are showing increased interest in using hydrogen, and gas turbines can convert from natural gas to hydrogen combustion.

Vehicles fuel

Hydrogen is an alternative vehicle fuel. It allows us to power fuel cells in zero-emission electric drive vehicles.

Concrete Production

Hydrogen heat is used in order to reduce emissions in the manufacturing process.

Steelmaking

Steelmaking is an industry that is beginning to successfully use hydrogen in two ways to eliminate almost all greenhouse emissions from the steelmaking process.  First for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) replacing coke (from coal) with hydrogen to remove oxygen from iron ore. Second for heat to melt the iron ore into DRI and then into low carbon steel.

Space exploration

Liquid hydrogen has been used by NASA as a rocket fuel since the 1950s.

Chemical Industry

Hydrogen is used in production of explosives, fertilizers, and other chemicals; to convert heavier hydrocarbons to lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals; to hydrogenate organic compounds; and to remove impurities like sulfur, halides, oxygen, metals, and/or nitrogen. It's also in household cleaners like ammonium hydroxide.

Pharmaceutical Industry

Hydrogen is used to make vitamins and other pharmaceutical products.

Glass and Ceramics

In the production of float glass, hydrogen is needed to provide heat and to prevent the large tin bath from oxidizing.

Food and Beverages

It is used to hydrogenate unsaturated fatty acids in animal and vegetable oils, to obtain solid fats for margarine and other food products.

Oil Refining

Using clean hydrogen makes it possible to reduce emissions while "cracking" heavier petroleum into lightweight hydrocarbons to produce many value-added chemicals.

Read More

Goals

The World needs MORE hydrogen, to move toward Turquoise and Green hydrogen, and away from Grey hydrogen

goals diagram

Where We are Now

  • The temperature trend shows the increase can reach 5.9°F (3.28°C) by 2050
  • High CO2 emissions (7-8 kg CO2 /kg H2)
  • Only 2% produced with carbon capture (2Mt)
  • Worldwide 98% Hydrogen production (94 Mt) without carbon capture emits CO2(900 Mt)
  • 62% from methane without carbon capture
  • Fossil Fuel electricity generation pollutes the environment
  • Fossil Fuel provides 33-35% efficiency
diagram

What We Want to Achieve

By 2030

  • 25% Produced(24Mt) with carbon capture
  • Stop more climate change limiting warming to 2.4°F (1.3°C) by 2050
  • Hydrogen for low-carbon industrial heat
  • 100% Hydrogen as a sustainable industrial feedstock

Statistics Source: IEA Global Hydrogen Review 2022

Most Common Hydrogen Sources

These methods now produce 85% of the world's Greenhouse Gas carbon emissions

grey hydrogen method

SMR (Steam Methane Reforming) + WGS (Water Gas Shift)

SMR is a way of producing syngas (Hydrogen and Carbon monoxide) by mixing hydrocarbons (like natural gas) with water. This mixture goes into a special container called a reformer vessel where a high-pressure mixture of steam and methane comes into contact with a nickel catalyst. As a result of the reaction, hydrogen and carbon monoxide are produced.

To make more hydrogen, carbon monoxide from the first reaction is mixed with water through the WGS reaction. As a result, we receive more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide. For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced and in almost all cases released into the atmosphere.  Carbon dioxide is a harmful gas causing climate change.

$863 ($0.86 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity = $474 + Methane $383 + Water $6 US EIA May 2024*)

SMR + WGS with Carbon Capture

The SMR method involves combining natural gas with high-temperature steam and a catalyst to generate a blend of hydrogen and carbon monoxide. Then, more water is added to the mixture to make more hydrogen and a gas called carbon dioxide.

For each unit of hydrogen produced there are 6 units of carbon dioxide produced. In a few experimental trials, to help the environment, the carbon dioxide is captured and stored underground using a special technology called CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage). This leaves almost pure hydrogen.

One of the main problems with carbon capture and storage is that without careful management of storage, the CO2 can flow from these underground reservoirs into the surrounding air and contribute to climate change, or spoil the nearby water supply. Another is the risk of creating earthquake tremors caused by the storage increasing underground pressure, known as human caused seismicity.

$1,253 ($1.25 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $474 + Methane $505 + Water $4 US + CCS $270 EIA May 2024*)

blue hydrogen

Newer, Clean Hydrogen Sources

Turquoise Hydrogen

Methane Pyrolysis

This technology based on natural gas emits no greenhouse gases as it does not produce CO2. Methane Pyrolysis refers to a method of generating hydrogen by breaking down methane into its basic components, namely hydrogen and solid carbon.

Oxygen is not involved at all within this process (no CO or CO2 is produced). Thus, for the production of hydrogen gas there is no need for an additional of CO or for CO2 separation.

$1,199 ($1.20 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $433 +Methane $766 EIA May 2024*)

More About Turquoise Hydrogen
green-method

Electrolysis

The concept of Green Hydrogen involves generating hydrogen from renewable energy sources by means of electrolysis, a process that splits water into its fundamental constituents, hydrogen and oxygen, using an electric current. This process can be powered by a range of renewable energy sources, such as solar energy, wind power, and hydropower.

The electricity used in the electrolysis process is derived exclusively from renewable sources, ensuring a sustainable and environmentally-friendly production of hydrogen. It generates zero carbon dioxide emissions and, as a result, prevents global warming.

$3,289 ($3.29 per kilogram of Hydrogen)

(Electricity $3,278 + water $11 US EIA May 2024*)

More About Green Hydrogen

Natural Hydrogen

(Emerging New Source)

Natural geologic hydrogen refers to hydrogen gas that is naturally present within the Earth's subsurface.

Known as "White" hydrogen, it can be generated through various geological processes. The study of geologic hydrogen and its potential as an energy resource is an active area of research, as it holds promise for renewable energy applications, particularly in the context of hydrogen fuel cells and clean energy production.

It's important to note that the creation of geologic hydrogen is generally a slow and long-term process, occurring over geological timescales. This is because the other methods are human production technology methods and this is creation by a natural phenomena. The availability and abundance of geologic hydrogen can vary significantly depending on the specific geological setting and the interplay of various factors such as rock composition, temperature, pressure, and the presence of suitable reactants.

Here are some of the main sources and mechanisms of geologic
hydrogen generation:

01

Serpentinization

Serpentinization is a chemical reaction that occurs when water interacts with certain types of rocks, particularly ultramafic rocks rich in minerals such as olivine and pyroxene. This process results in the formation of serpentine minerals and produces hydrogen gas as a byproduct. Serpentinization typically takes place in environments such as hydrothermal systems, oceanic crust, and certain tectonic settings.

02

Radiolysis

In regions with high concentrations of radioactive elements, such as uranium and thorium, the decay of these elements releases radiation. This radiation can interact with surrounding water or other fluids, splitting the water molecules and generating hydrogen gas through a process called radiolysis. This mechanism is believed to contribute to the production of hydrogen in certain deep geological settings, such as deep groundwater systems and radioactive mineral deposits.

03

Geothermal activity

Geothermal systems, which involve the circulation of hot water or steam through fractured rocks, can generate hydrogen gas as a result of various processes. High-temperature hydrothermal systems can cause the thermal decomposition of hydrocarbons, releasing hydrogen gas. Additionally, the interaction between water and hot rocks in geothermal reservoirs can lead to the production of hydrogen through serpentinization or other geochemical reactions.

04

Abiotic methane cracking

Abiotic methane refers to methane gas that is not directly derived from biological sources, such as microbial activity. In certain geological environments, abiotic methane can be generated through processes like thermal decomposition of organic matter or reactions between carbon dioxide and hydrogen. This methane can subsequently undergo thermal or catalytic cracking, producing hydrogen gas.

Success Stories

Steps Taken by Different Countries to Move Forward to Net Zero Emissions

96

£4 billion

100 MW+

1st place

green hydrogen plants are owned by Australia. It possesses the highest count of establishments globally. Australia is expected to have the lowest costs of green hydrogen production by 2050 due to an abundance of solar and wind resources.

was committed by the UK to hydrogen technology and production facilities by 2030 to cultivate a hydrogen economy and create 9,000 jobs.

green hydrogen production sites are being developed by Canadian company First Hydrogen in Quebec and Manitoba. These plans are being developed in conjunction with Canadian and North American automotive strategies.

in the list of largest hydropower producers in the world belongs to China. It is followed by Brazil, USA and Canada.

By 2047

In 2017

200,000

110 countries

green hydrogen will help India make a quantum leap toward energy independence. The country’s National Hydrogen Mission was launched in 2021.

Japan became the first country to formulate a national hydrogen strategy as part of its ambition to become the world's first "hydrogen society" by deploying this fuel in all sectors.

fuel-cell electric vehicles production by 2025 is the goal stated by South Korea. In 2021, South Korea also approved the Hydrogen Power Economic Development and Safety Control Law, the first in the world to promote hydrogen vehicles, charging stations, and fuel cells.

have legally committed to reach net zero emissions by 2050.

Conclusion

The World needs MORE hydrogen

SMR + WGS

SMR + WGS

Keep current hydrogen production methods BUT

+

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

Clean Hydrogen Production Methods

make additional steps to broaden them with cleaner production methods

=

More Hydrogen

more hydrogen

And as a result the world will get more vital hydrogen and become one step closer to net zero emission

Сurrent Situation

The market is dominated by grey hydrogen produced from natural gas through a fossil fuel-powered SMR process. Every year, the production of grey hydrogen amounts to approximately 70 to 80 million tons, and it is primarily used in industrial chemistry. More than 80% is used for the synthesis of ammonia and its derivatives (fertilizer for agriculture, 50 perecent of food worldwide) or for oil refining operations. Unfortunately, for every 1 kg of grey hydrogen, almost 6-8 kg of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere.

More than 95% of the world's hydrogen production is based on fossil fuels with greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, to achieve a more stable future and promote the transition of pure energy, the global goal is to reduce the use of other “colors” of hydrogen and focus on the production of a clean product, such as green or turquoise hydrogen. Reaching the zero carbon footprint will require a gradual transition from grey to green/turquoise hydrogen in the coming years.

It is possible to produce decarbonized hydrogen. An option is to use another feedstock, namely water, and convert it in large electrolyzers into H2 and oxygen (O2), which are returned to the atmosphere. If the electricity used to power the electrolyzers is 100% renewable energy (photovoltaic panels, wind turbines, etc.), then hydrogen becomes green. Currently, it is about 0.1% of the total production of hydrogen, but it is expected that it will increase since the cost of renewable energy continues to fall.

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What Does the Data Say about Climate Change?

U.S. Additions to Electric Generating Capacity

U.S. additions to electric generation capacity from 2000 to 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports that the United States 
is building power plants at a record pace. As indicated on the chart, nearly all new electric generating capacity either already installed or planned 
for 2025 is from clean energy sources, while new power plants coming 
on line 25 years ago, in 2000, were predominantly fueled by natural gas. New wind power plants began to come on line in 2001 and new solar plants, 10 years, later in 2011. Since 2023, the U.S. power industry has built more solar than any other type of power plant. The EIA predicts that clean energy (wind, solar, and battery storage) will deliver 93% of new power-plant capacity in 2025.

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Surface Air Temperature

Global surface air temperature departures between 1940 and 2024 from the average temperature for the period 1991-2020 (averages below the 11-year average are blue and those above are red). The average in October 2024 was +0.80 degrees Celsius above the reference period average, down from +0.85 degrees Celsius above the reference period average in 2023, which was the warmest October on record.

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Hyundai breaks ground on Louisiana steel mill. Is it green enough?
Sep 3, 2026

The plant will cut CO2 emissions compared to traditional coal furnaces. But Hyundai’s use of gas and resulting pollution show the messiness of cleaning up steel.

Hyundai is set to break ground in southern Louisiana this week on a nearly $6 billion steel mill, which may become the lowest-carbon facility of its kind in the U.S.

On Friday, the Korean industrial giant will hold a ceremony at the project site, where the fields of a former sugarcane plantation have been cleared for the major work ahead. Hyundai’s plant will initially run on natural gas when it opens in 2029 — making it significantly less carbon-intensive than the aging coal-fueled mills that produce most of America’s automotive steel.

Yet the facility is hardly a perfect blueprint for decarbonizing steel production, given that it will still produce planet-warming emissions and other harmful air pollution.

Most of the Louisiana plant’s emissions will come from the gas-burning furnace that turns iron ore into direct-reduced iron — which then gets melted into steel in an electric arc furnace. The project is one of several huge new developments in Ascension Parish, where rural communities along the Mississippi River are increasingly being hemmed in by industrialization.

“Even though Hyundai has tried to sell this as a clean and green project, we know from their own numbers that this facility would be a major source of just about every type of pollution that the state regulates,” said Kimberly Terrell, a New Orleans–based research scientist with the Environmental Integrity Project’s Center for Applied Environmental Science.

That pollution includes emissions of nitrogen oxide, particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide, each of which is known to cause respiratory problems and other serious health issues, she told reporters ahead of Friday’s groundbreaking.

Terrell said she believes the plant’s draft environmental permit downplays the steel mill’s potential impacts on nearby air quality. Local residents have also voiced concerns that the project is moving forward before the Louisiana Department of Environmental Quality has the chance to rigorously review and issue a final air permit.

“Development should improve our communities, not leave families wondering what the long-term cost will be to their children,” said Courtney Harris, a program manager for Rural Roots Louisiana and a resident of Donaldsonville, the nearest city to Hyundai’s steel mill site.

Hyundai-Posco Louisiana Steel, the U.S.-based subsidiary of Hyundai Steel, said the company has ​“made every effort to ensure that our project meets environmental standards and complies with all applicable regulatory requirements. We respect the permitting process and will continue to follow all required procedures as it moves forward,” according to Ascension Business Report. (Hyundai didn’t return Canary Media’s request for comment.)

Signs for Hyundai and Forgen on a lawn with trees; blue puffy-cloudy sky
The site of Hyundai’s future steel mill in Ascension Parish, Louisiana, on May 12, 2026 (Maria Gallucci/Canary Media)

The steelmaker could drastically reduce both air and carbon pollution in Louisiana by replacing the gas with green hydrogen — which is made from renewable electricity and water, and whose only byproduct is water vapor. When Hyundai first unveiled the project in early 2025, it indicated the plant would use the carbon-free fuel and become a ​“catalyst for the hydrogen ecosystem” in the Bayou State.

However, Hyundai’s plans for switching to hydrogen remain nebulous, and the broader market for green hydrogen continues to face major cost and logistical hurdles. The manufacturer has offered little clarity about its hydrogen ambitions in its state permit applications and in previous responses to Canary Media.

But Hyundai’s gas-fueled mill will nevertheless be much cleaner than traditional coal-based steelmaking. The company says its steel products will have a carbon footprint that’s 70% lower than those produced using conventional methods.

That may be the best the U.S. can get right now, experts say.

Earlier efforts to pursue hydrogen-based steelmaking have stalled in the face of economic headwinds and the Trump administration’s hostility toward clean energy. Cleveland-Cliffs, which got a $500 million Biden-era grant to install hydrogen-ready technology, says it will instead use the funding to upgrade a coal-fueled blast furnace in southern Ohio.

As manufacturers look to boost domestic steel production — driven by tariffs and increasing demand — they’re primarily planning to build gas-fueled ironmaking furnaces like Hyundai’s.

U.S. Steel, for example, says it will invest nearly $2 billion to build a direct-reduced-iron plant at its Big River Steel site in Arkansas, where four electric arc furnaces already melt down scrap steel. In Minnesota, the mining company Mesabi Metallics is considering installing such a furnace at its giant operation in the Iron Range.

“The industry is naturally moving towards [direct-reduced-iron] based production for cost and efficiency reasons, leveraging low-cost natural gas that we have in the United States,” said Nick Yavorsky, a senior associate on the iron and steel team at RMI, a clean energy think tank.

“We’re still not at the point where hydrogen-based steelmaking is cost-competitive with incumbent fossil methods,” he said.

Even so, new facilities can be designed in ways that avoid locking companies into using natural gas for decades and help ease the transition to hydrogen, Yavorsky wrote in a July analysis with Kaitlyn Ramirez, who leads the RMI team. That could include leaving land available for hydrogen-producing electrolyzers and working with utilities early on to secure renewable energy supplies — as well as taking cues from Hyundai’s project, which will deploy hydrogen-ready furnace technology and electrify certain steps of steel processing.

“Planning for flexibility [around hydrogen] will ultimately have the potential to position the U.S. as a real leader in this space,” Ramirez said.

This novel power line could link 3 grids across 3 time zones
Sep 3, 2026

North Plains Connector has earned backing from the Energy Department and utilities, and could deliver huge cost and reliability benefits — if states give it the OK.

Michael Skelly knows it’s hard to build a huge transmission line that connects different regions of the grid. He has spent a decade trying to get one up and running.

But Skelly, now CEO of Grid United, thinks his current attempt to build a first-of-its-kind transmission line is on the right track. And he’s gotten a consortium of utilities from Minnesota to Oregon, and officials in the U.S. Department of Energy through both the Biden and Trump administrations, to back it up.

Grid United’s North Plains Connector will be a 420-mile, 3-gigawatt high-voltage direct current (HVDC) link between Montana and North Dakota. It will require an estimated $6 billion in investment across both states, and won’t be completed until 2032 at the earliest.

When it’s done, North Plains Connector will be able to share power between three grid regions spanning three time zones across the U.S. West, Great Plains, and Upper Midwest. Today, such region-spanning connections are extremely rare. But study after study has shown they can yield major benefits that extend far beyond the states the line transects.

“If you connect two grids whose peak moments are at two different times, you create an ability for the grids to lean on one another,” Skelly said.

A map of the North Plains Connector project showing how it interconnects WECC, SPP and MISO regional grids
A map of the North Plains Connector project indicates how it will link the regional grids of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). (Grid United)

The reliability and cost benefits that could flow from linking entire regions are almost certainly substantial. But it’s hard to quantify all the good that can come from such links when they have never existed before — and utilities and regulators want to be able to clearly define long-term benefits before they approve major investments.

Grid United’s solution is to front the costs for getting the project off the ground while trying to convince utilities to join in paying for a portion. Financing from the DOE is helping immensely with navigating these early costs and risks — and in getting utilities on board.

Back in 2024, the DOE awarded a $700 million grant to the consortium, including Grid United and the Montana Department of Commerce, which is the lead agency for administering the award. And last week, the DOE published a final environmental impact statement for the project, helped along by a federal interagency process launched under the Biden administration.

The Trump administration has continued to work with Grid United, even as it has clawed back or delayed billions of dollars in other Biden-era grants and terminated a $4.9 billion DOE loan for the Grain Belt Express, another massive HVDC line meant to carry wind and solar energy from the Great Plains to states farther east.

For North Plains Connector, having that federal money available ​“is quite helpful to the utilities that are participating in the project as they go through regulatory approvals,” Skelly said. Regulators ​“want their states to get their fair share, if you will — and they also want customers whose utilities are paying for the project to not have to pay for the whole thing.”

This combination of the DOE and Grid United taking on the early costs and risks has given a growing list of utilities enough confidence to make at least conditional commitments to pay for a piece of the project once it’s finished.

Some of them are directly involved in the states where it’s being built, such as Minnkota Power Cooperative and NorthWestern Energy. While others — such as Allete Energy and Great River Energy in Minnesota, Portland General Electric in Oregon, and Puget Sound Energy in Washington state — are joining up to earn a share of the reliability and cost benefits that will flow indirectly from the project and across the grid regions it will link.

Those far-off utilities don’t need to draw power directly from the end points of the HVDC line to gain the benefits, said Gretchen Kershaw, chief operating officer at consultancy Grid Strategies, which is not involved in the project. That’s because HVDC lines enable two-way flows of power that can energize and backfill shortfalls across entire regional grid networks.

Being able to tap into generation well beyond their borders makes it easier for utilities to deal with disruption or demand spikes caused by intense weather events like winter storms or heat waves. That’s one of the benefits cited for North Plains Connector in last month’s draft National Transmission Needs Study, the most recent in a series of DOE reports highlighting the value of these kinds of interregional connections.

“The most reliable and resilient system will have diversity in generation supply, both in terms of types of generation and location,” said Kershaw, who previously worked as a senior adviser to the DOE’s Grid Deployment Office, which was the source of the North Plains Connector grant but disbanded by the Trump administration last year. ​“You’re essentially able to make the system bigger, with generators and customers on both sides, and weather systems that are different at both ends.”

Those are some of the benefits that drew Allete to partner on the North Plains Connector project in 2023.

“We knew this energy transformation happening in our nation is going to require people to go well beyond the boundaries of their previous business and service territories,” said Julie Pierce, vice president of strategy and planning for the utility and energy company.

Allete owns Minnesota Power, a utility serving about 150,000 customers, as well as renewable energy subsidiaries including wind farms in North Dakota, which happen to be connected with a decades-old HVDC line to its Minnesota territory.

Allete is also part of a group of utilities that developed a large-scale, multi-utility grid-expansion plan in the early 2000s, which helped lay the groundwork for billions of dollars in additional regional transmission buildouts in the Midwest, Pierce said.

A key step in convincing other utilities to sign on is figuring out how to measure the new interregional line’s resource adequacy value. That’s the term of art for how utilities ensure they can keep their grids running during times of high demand, power plant outages, severe weather, or other emergencies.

“It’s so massive, it’s hard to put boundaries around what it’s going to enable,” Pierce said. ​“How do you value the ability to keep lights on in the Upper Midwest when there’s a storm coming through, but you’re able to import that solar from California?”

That work has some clear starting points, she said. Utilities can start to incorporate the reliability value of their share of the line into the integrated resource plans they file with state regulators, which lay out how much new generation and grid investment they need to make over the next decade or more.

North Plains Connector has its work cut out for it beyond measuring resource adequacy. Before it can break ground, it must make agreements with landowners along the path of the line, secure state and local permits, and win final regulatory approvals from both states it passes through.

“These projects take many years to put together,” Skelly said.

Indeed, high-profile transmission lines like the SunZia project from New Mexico to California and the Champlain Hudson Power Express from Canada to New York City have taken more than a decade from inception to completion. Many transmission projects fail to overcome hurdles. Skelly’s previous company, Clean Line Energy Partners, shut down in 2019 after failing to complete five power lines to carry 16.5 GW of wind power across the Midwest.

But if North Plains Connector can get connected, ​“the project will be online for 30 years,” he said. ​“What does generation in America look like in 2050? I don’t know. But it’s very likely we have very different demand profiles in each system, and whatever generation we have in that time, we’ll be better able to optimize if we have a great grid to lean on.”

Clean energy super PAC looks to take down a Democratic governor

Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee is the first Democrat targeted by the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, which has notched wins against clean energy foes in GOP primaries.

The troubled reelection campaign of Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee is facing a new obstacle: a super PAC determined to take down foes of clean energy.

The Invest in Tomorrow Coalition has declared McKee its first Democratic target, following campaigns against three Republican primary candidates, all of whom lost their races. The political action committee announced this week that it is spending $500,000 to air ads opposing McKee in advance of the Sept. 9 Democratic primary. The campaign will be run by the state-level political action committee Invest in America’s Future.

McKee has repeatedly linked rising utility bills to clean energy. His budget proposal this spring included measures that would have delayed the state’s transition to 100% renewable energy by nearly two decades and slashed energy-efficiency spending by more than 20%. State lawmakers in June blocked these efforts, but a few weeks later McKee vetoed legislation that would have required owners of large buildings to track and report their energy use.

“We are on a mission to ensure that there are consequences for politicians in both parties who scapegoat renewable energy for their own failures,” said Invest in America’s Future spokesperson Chris Coffey. ​“McKee might believe that blaming clean energy is a convenient way to deflect responsibility for Rhode Island’s affordability crisis, but by the time primary day comes around, we will ensure that every single Rhode Islander knows exactly where the buck stops.”

McKee’s chances at keeping his seat were already shaky, with a recent poll putting him 38 percentage points behind his primary challenger, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes. His lack of support has largely been attributed to the hasty closure in 2023 of the Washington Bridge, a major span in the tiny state, and the long delay before rebuilding began.

Invest in Tomorrow, however, wants its involvement to send a message: Oppose clean energy and we will do everything we can to oppose you.

Invest in Tomorrow was founded after the Trump administration — with the help of congressional Republicans — unraveled clean-energy incentives created by the Inflation Reduction Act. Its goal is to threaten clean energy opponents with the kind of electoral consequences long wielded by the gun lobby and oil interests.

The group’s first three targets were all congressional Republicans: Rep. Chip Roy, who was running for state attorney general in Texas; Rep. Andy Ogles, who was seeking reelection in Tennessee; and Rep. Ralph Norman, whom ITC targeted in his bid for South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial nomination in June and then again in the recent race for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham’s seat. All three lost their races.

The ads ITC pays for generally do not reflect the group’s focus on climate and clean energy issues. Instead, it deploys messages it thinks will be most effective against an individual candidate. Ads opposing Roy painted him as insufficiently loyal to President Donald Trump, for example. The spots running against McKee accuse him of mismanaging the Washington Bridge closure and of doing financial favors for his donors.

McKee is not the only Democratic governor to consider tempering climate commitments in the face of high prices and anxious constituents. Most prominently, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul has rolled back the state’s once-ambitious emissions-reduction goals.

McKee, however, has been perhaps the most pugnacious on the topic. He declared in July that anyone who argues against his proposals wants residents to have higher bills and is ​“advocating for their own personal self-interests.”

“If you wanted to take an action to show the Democratic governors that they need to get in line on the issue of climate, McKee is a good choice,” said Christian Roselund, a leader with nonprofit advocacy group Climate Action Rhode Island. ​“I’ve been trying to find a Democratic governor with a worse record on the climate than Dan McKee, and I’m not sure there is one.”

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